Exploring the relative importance of Changing Sea Level versus Changing Wave Climates for the next 30 years along the East Coast of Australia. — YRD

Exploring the relative importance of Changing Sea Level versus Changing Wave Climates for the next 30 years along the East Coast of Australia. (907)

Ron Cox 1 , Kristen Splinter 1 , Ian Turner 1
  1. UNSW Australia, UNSW Australia Sydney, NSW, Australia
In recent years, much of the focus on the impacts of climate change on the world's sandy coastlines has been on the slowly varying process of sea level rise. A simple Bruun-rule approach suggests that as sea level rises, the beach profile must keep up and this is done by eroding the upper dune system and placing that sand in the nearshore region. While sea level has risen along the Sydney coastline in the last 4 decades, there is no discernable long-term trend in the nearly 4 decades of beach profiles at Narrabeen-Collaroy. By contrast, this beach, like many others along this stretch of coastline is impacted by large storms, such as the 1974 events, or more recently the 2007 Pasha Bulka storm. These storms are capable of eroding beaches 50m+ in a period of several days. Recovery of these events can take between weeks to years, depending on the level of the storm. As part of the NSW Climate Adaptation Research Hub, here we will present findings using an existing, calibrated shoreline evolution model to examine the relative storm demand and recovery rates associated with the estimated ARI storm events as detailed in Shand et al. (2010) "NSW Coastal Inundation Hazard Study: Coastal Storms and Extreme Waves" and compare those to projected sea level rise trends over the next 30 years.
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