Natural resource management (NRM) planning must be adaptive to provide a robust framework within which catchment communities can best manage their natural resources. The use of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models to describe relationships between catchment management and ecosystem responses are a useful way of building consensus, developing a conceptual understanding of catchment processes among stakeholders and providing a virtual space to test management scenarios and develop most appropriate strategies for catchment management.

Condamine Alliance, in Southern Queensland, with the Australian National University are developing a BBN model to support the update of their NRM Plan. The update will address climate adaptation and emerging issues such as mining impact.

The conceptual underpinning of the BBN model has been developed with key stakeholders through consensus and pooled knowledge. A web delivered communications version of the model is being developed to enable the community to test standard scenarios and to use as a participatory learning tool. The model will allow plan developers to test targets and strategies.

The BBN will be used to help determine management required for key landuses to achieve land, water and wildlife targets. The modelling will be integrated with a pressure-state-response monitoring program to check and adapt management. Future land use scenarios will be modelled, identifying where adaptation may not be sufficient for resource health. 

The natural resource management plan will be web based to allow greater flexibility as new knowledge arises, constraints change and model is improved. Resulting in a more adaptive NRM plan.