Building a climate-based malaria early warning system in the Solomon Islands — YRD

Building a climate-based malaria early warning system in the Solomon Islands (1204)

Jason Smith 1 , Lloyd Tahani 2 , Isabelle Jeanne 1
  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia
  2. Solomon Islands Meteorological Service, Honiara, Solomon Islands

Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity in the Solomon Islands despite improvements in malaria control over the past decade. One factor which is not well studied in the Solomon Islands is the influence of climate variability on malaria incidence. The Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) is working in partnership with the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service (SIMS) and the Solomon Islands Vector-borne Disease Control Program (VBDCP) to analyze the relationship between climate and malaria in the Solomon Islands with the eventual goal of developing a climate-based Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS). 

A lagged statistical regression model was used to investigate the relationship between climate and malaria in the Guadalcanal and Central Provinces. This model showed that rainfall variability in the early wet season months between October and December was strongly linked with variations in incidence over the peak malaria season between January and June of the following year. This result demonstrates the influence that rainfall has on the transmission of malaria, particularly in the wet season whilst the lagged nature of this relationship allows for the potential of developing a MEWS based on rainfall.

COSPPac is now working with SIMS and VBDCP to implement an operational MEWS which will allow the SIMS provide guidance to the VBDCP on whether rainfall conditions in the early wet season are conducive to higher or lower malaria transmission over the annual malaria season. A workshop will be held later this year to implement a first prototype of this system.

#adapt2014