The new norm is no norm: adaptation for climate disruption (909)
The science is now clear that human perturbation of Earth’s climate system will continue for millennia, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions cease immediately. The reason is related to the very long atmospheric lifetime of a pulse of CO2 and the slow rate of deep ocean circulation, deposition and sedimentation processes which are the ultimate destination for carbon. It follows that global and regional climates most likely will not “settle down” into a new regime but will be continually disrupted “forever” (at least from a human perspective). The implications for climate change adaptation of continuous climatic disruption need to be addressed. Conventionally, adaptation assumes there is a norm, that is, a statistically definable set of climatic conditions that characterize a given time period, typically 30 years. Based on this norm, adaptation involves, among other things, each sector developing various kinds of standards, prescriptions and guidelines which accommodate both average and extreme weather conditions and anticipate and manage associated risks. If the new norm is no norm, however, conventional approached to adaptation will have to change. Here I consider some of the major implications of climatic disruption for adaptation and whether the adaptive management cycle as developed for natural resource management and conservation provides a useful operational framework.