There are approximately five million timber power distribution poles in service across Australia worth $11 billion. Annual maintenance costs exceed $30 million for the eastern states of Australia. The Australian power distribution network constitutes an important element of the country’s urban and coastal infrastructure. Despite the scale of this infrastructure asset, limited research has been carried out to better enhance maintenance and management efficiency. In particular, there is a paucity of research utilising probabilistic methods to examine the vulnerability and reliability of Australian timber power poles under a changing climate.

This paper sets out to examine the vulnerability and reliability of Australian timber power poles under current and future climatic conditions. The hazards of interest are storms and tropical cyclones, and timber decay - both of which may worsen due to a changing climate. Monte-Carlo stochastic methods are utilised to estimate spatial and time-dependent economic risks or expected losses up to the year 2100 for various climate change scenarios. Adaption strategies aimed at mitigating possible increases in damage risk due to climate change include larger pole sizes, changes in timber durability, changes in inspection frequency and techniques, and changes in pole replacement criteria. The cost-benefit analysis of these adaptation strategies considers material and installation costs, inspection, maintenance and replacement costs, and direct and indirect damage costs. It was found that net benefit is maximised by a range of adaptation strategies, and that the optimal strategy depends heavily on region specific vulnerabilities.