To inform future investment the Australian dairy industry must fully explore the impacts of climate extremes and a more variable climate.  Using three dairy businesses in differing regions, a range of farm development options will be explored - some options will push the boundaries of current farming practice, but all will retain economic and social reality.  Biophysical and economic modelling, social research and farmer engagement will assist to identify farm management responses that make economic sense and build human and biophysical capability to manage a more challenging future.

The project examines:

• 1. Trade-offs between profitability, risk, social impacts, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with realistic farm development options.
• 2. Potential impacts of climate variability and extreme events on economic, biophysical and social aspects of farm development options.
• 3. Management options that provide effective adaptation and mitigation outcomes.
• 4. Skills and industry support systems required to build capacity to respond, considering the reduced decision making capacity that accompanies increased uncertainty.

Preliminary research demonstrates that increased periods of drought as well as more intense rainfall events will reduce median pasture production by up to 31% in Southern Australia, while the combined effect of extended periods of drought, more intense rainfall events, longer heat waves and increased frequencies of hot days will reduce pasture production by up to 36%. Future work will examine how these impacts influence the temporal sequence of annual farm revenue and possible social consequences of risk perception and farm adaptation to extreme climatic events.