The economic viability of mariculture industries (e.g. mussels, abalone, and oysters) may be affected by climate change. Yet, the current literature provides very limited information about the potential implications of climate change for mariculture industries and the role of markets in the future development of these industries.

In this study we examine the likely impact of changing climatic conditions on the economic sustainability of Australia’s Sydney rock oyster industry. This industry has been affected by a range of environmental challenges in the past with negative impacts on its production capacity. Furthermore, the industry has experienced an increasing market competition in recent years which led to a loss in its profitability. The impact of climate change may cause additional pressure on the economic sustainability of the Sydney rock oyster industry.

We develop a model that incorporates economic, spatial and biophysical variables to estimate the revenue function of the Sydney rock oyster industry under different climate change scenarios for alternative market settings.

The findings from a scenario analysis suggest that the negative effect of projected climate change on the industry’s revenue may be moderate overall. However, some production areas may be more affected than others. Furthermore, market dynamics could have a larger impact on the future economic sustainability of the industry than direct effects from climate change.