Seasonal Forecasting to Support Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture Management in a Changing Climate (985)
Seasonal forecasts from dynamical ocean-atmosphere models of high risk conditions in marine ecosystems can be very useful tools for marine managers, allowing for proactive management responses. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal forecast model POAMA currently produces operational real-time forecasts of sea surface temperatures for Australia. These forecasts are used in the management of multi-species long-line fisheries on the east coast of Australia. Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) are a quota-managed species in the eastern Australian longline fishery, and there is a management need to reduce non-quota capture of this species. Ocean forecasts are combined with a statistical habitat model to produce experimental habitat maps for fisheries authorities to use in regulating fishing effort. Similarly, POAMA forecasts around Tasmania, Australia, are utilised by managers of salmon aquaculture farms, with information used to enhance farm production in a variable climate. Warm summers can significantly impact farm production via an increase in operational expenses and impacts on fish condition, mortality and recovery potential, while cool winters slow salmonid growth. Forecast products have also been developed for prawn aquaculture in Queensland, based on air temperature and rainfall predictions for up to four months into the future. Advance warning of suboptimal conditions allows for proactive management responses and helps maintain industry profitability in an uncertain environment. Improved management of marine resources, with the assistance of such forecast tools, is also likely to enhance their resilience and adaptive capacity under climate change.