The threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services from climate change are of concern globally, and the most important and immediate danger for humans and their economies are considered to be the effects on the distribution and productivity of agriculture. For food production, costly climate change adaptation measures such as the development of new crop varieties and expansion of irrigation may be necessary.

We used a species distribution modelling tool to investigate when and where farmers could consider undertaking climate change adaptation strategies. We predicted areas of high probability for specific agricultural practices under future climate change by developing probability models for cropping, avocado and grazing under the current climate and 2020 - 2035 future climate change scenarios.

Our results suggested that cropping in Queensland's Fitzroy Basin NRM region may contract southwards and eastwards by 2035. The highest probability for avocado production remained similar along the East Coast Cluster NRM region from the current to 2035 climate scenarios and areas of high probability for avocado were identified in southeastern South Australia, where currently no avocado production occurs. The probability of grazing in the Fitzroy Basin NRM region generally reduced as climate change progressed, contracted southwards in the Burnett Mary NRM region and reduced in the western Hunter NRM region.

When scaled-down to local and regional levels, such studies can provide guidance to landholders, NRM groups and other stakeholders in developing climate change adaptation strategies. For example, by increasing the resilience of production systems, changing land use or addressing risk management.