A framework for estimating economic impacts of climate change on tea production: robust adaptation approaches (1097)
Extreme weather occurrences over the past few decades have negatively affected output of major tea producing countries in the world. In this study, we describe a framework to estimate the economic impact of climate change on the yield and price volatility of tea in the presence of climate uncertainty to assist with identifying appropriate adaptation options. The study will be based on long term data on climate, tea yield and tea price from the tea sector in Sri Lanka, a country for which tea production is a significant sector of the economy. Multivariate time series analysis will be used to quantify the relationship between the different climate variables and the yield, productivity and price of tea. Knowing yield and quality responses to climate drivers, forecasts of price movement in the presence of future climate change will be produced using Vector Autoregressive Models programmed in R. Drawing on historical production and meteorological data from a cross-section of tea plantations, a translog-based model of tea production will be developed from which a supply curve for tea can be produced. Climate change-induced variations in yield, price and supply will then all be modelled to estimate the economic impact of climate change on the tea industry, using a partial equilibrium approach. Real options investment analysis and Bayesian models of producer behaviour will be used to identify robust climate change adaptation strategies in the presence of uncertainty. This proposed framework will be improved through the comprehensive comments of the scholars participated in the NACCF conference.