Agriculture is important to the Tasmanian economy with an average farm gate value of production of ~$1,100 million or 5% of gross State product - the largest proportion for any Australian State. The total food revenue multiplier from the farm gate is 320% giving a sectoral contribution of 16% of gross State product. Therefore, prospective changes to agricultural production, including those from climate change, are of considerable local significance.

Tasmanian enterprises, dominated by mixed crop-livestock farms, are structurally diverse, and regionally influenced by edaphic, climatic and infrastructure constraints and opportunities. As managers have limited control over climate, agricultural production is particularly sensitive to climate variability and changes in the baseline climate. A regional assessment of the climate change impacts under a range of general circulation models and emission scenarios has identified the scope for positive yield gains in some crops and pastures due largely to a warming and wetting trend, and reduction in frost events. This affects the scope for changing the geographic domain of existing crop and pasture types, or possibly introducing new ones with consequent effects to regional enterprise structures and productivity patterns.

The paper describes the application of whole farm simulation modelling to two ‘synthetic’ mixed crop-livestock farms located in the Derwent Valley and Northern Midlands regions. A range of climate adaptation strategies is explored along with their impact on farm yields and financial bottom lines. Biodiversity implications of the associated intensification of land use, a shift from native vegetation to pasture or cropping, is also discussed.